This year's Academy Awards are on the horizon, with a great group of nominees and many exciting races, this is shaping up to be one of the most exciting ceremonies in a while. While I'm no expert I do follow along with the awards race so I'm here to hopefully help with those Oscar pools on Sunday. For each category I'll give what I want to win and what I think will win. So without further adieu let's get started.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Hong Chau - The Whale, Kerry Condon - The Banshees Of Inisherin, Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once, Stephanie Hsu - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Starting off with quite possibly the nuttiest race of them all. My personal choice would probably be Kerry Condon, although these are 5 pretty great performances. As for a prediction, I think I'm leaning that way as well. Bassett, Condon, and Curtis have now split major awards, with Bassett taking the Critics Choice and Golden Globe, Condon taking the BAFTA, and now Curtis surprising everyone and winning SAG. I can't really see Curtis taking the Oscar, and while Bassett started off very strong it feels like the momentum she had has fallen off. That leaves Condon, who my gut is telling me won't win but without another option that feels right she's the one I'm going to predict. Do not be surprised if Bassett comes back and takes it though.
Costume Design
Nominees: Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
My pick is probably Wakanda Forever, and I think Ruth E. Carter very well could come in and win it. However she already has an Oscar for the first Black Panther and this hasn't had quite the love as the first movie. It also whiffed at the costume design awards which is a pretty big hit. Elvis picked up a win there and has probably the flashiest costumes so that's what I'm leaning towards as a prediction.
Sound
Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, Avatar: The Way Of Water, The Batman, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick
I reckon All Quiet on the Western Front has a good shot being a war movie with a lot of technical award nominations, but people weren't shaking in their boots seeing it like they were when Top Gun hit theatres, so Top Gun: Maverick is my pick and my prediction.
Original Score
Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, Babylon, The Banshees Of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans
If this isn't Babylon we all lose. All Quiet could swoop in and take it, and the score for that one is pretty terrific. That being said, Babylon's score is far and above the best score from last year so it just needs to win.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Living, Top Gun: Maverick, Women Talking
My pick is without question Women Talking, that is in my opinion one of the best scripts of last year. I also think it will win, All Quiet is a big contender here largely based on the fact that it's a bigger awards contender in general, but it is in no way a dialogue driven movie whereas Women Talking lives and dies by its script so that's what I'm predicting.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: The Banshees Of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tar, Triangle Of Sadness
This one feels like a two horse race. Everything Everywhere has the benefit of being wildly out there and original, while Banshees brings some of the sharpest and deepest dialogue of last year. My love of great dialogue would make me probably pick Banshees (although I am flip flopping like crazy), but with the love for Everything Everywhere building I would predict that. That being said Banshees would not be surprising.
Live Action Short Film
Nominees: An Irish Goodbye, Ivalu, Le Pupille, Night Ride, The Red Suitcase
I always try to watch the shorts and I almost always get them wrong. My pick is definitely An Irish Goodbye it's just a truly delightful short. I also think that's what I'm predicting. Part of me wants to go with Le Pupille because of the money and names behind it, but people have tended to not be in love with that one whereas An Irish Goodbye has a lot of love behind it.
Animated Short Film
Nominees: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, And The Horse, The Flying Sailor, Ice Merchants, My Year Of Dicks, An Ostrich Told Me The World Is Fake And I Think I Believe It
Just like live action this one is all based on whether you believe in the genuine love for the film or the backing it has. My choice is without question Ice Merchants, one of the most beautiful and subtly emotional shorts I've seen in a long time. As for my prediction, I think I'm going with The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and The Horse. There's much more passion for Ice Merchants and My Year of Dicks but I fear that with Apple backing The Boy, The Mole- too many will be swayed to vote for it and the better films will split votes. Watch Ice Merchants though it's terrific.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees Of Inisherin, Brian Tyree Henry - Causeway, Judd Hirsch - The Fabelmans, Barry Keoghan - The Banshees Of Inisherin, Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Ke Huy Quan. Pick and prediction. End of story.
Original Song
Nominees: "Applause" - Tell It Like A Woman, "Hold My Hand" - Top Gun: Maverick, "Lift Me Up" - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, "Naatu Naatu" - RRR, "This Is A Life" - Everything Everywhere All At Once
My choice for this is "New Body Rhumba" from White Noise, I know it isn't nominated but I don't love any of these other than maybe "This is a Life." "Naatu Naatu" has won this award seemingly everywhere so to predict any different would just be silly.
Documentary Feature Film
Nominees: All The Beauty And The Bloodshed, All That Breathes, Fire Of Love, A House Made Of Splinters, Navalny
My pick for this one is definitely Fire of Love, that was one of my favourite docs of last year and I think it would be a great winner. For my prediction I think I'm leaning Navalny. Fire of Love could be a nice surprise winner but Navalny seems to be surging and it's a very anti-Russia/Putin doc which certainly fits the zeitgeist more.
Documentary Short Film
Nominees: The Elephant Whisperers, Haulout, How Do You Measure A Year?, The Martha Mitchell Effect, Stranger At The Gate
I loved How Do You Measure a Year? so that's my pick, my prediction is between The Elephant Whisperers and Stranger at the Gate. Elephant Whisperers is much safer as Stranger at the Gate is pretty polarizing so I'm leaning towards the Elephants. Haulout could also swoop in and take it but I don't like the movie so my bias is telling me no.
International Feature Film
Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, Argentina 1985, Close, Eo, The Quiet Girl
All Quiet has twice as many nominations as the rest combined, it is winning this and it isn't close. For my pick I would maybe go All Quiet but I loved The Quiet Girl so I'll go with that.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio, Marcel The Shell With Shoes On, Puss In Boots: The Last Wish, The Sea Beast, Turning Red
Pinocchio has won basically everything, this is a great group of films but the power of Guillermo del Toro seems to make this an easy choice. I also loved the film so that's my choice.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, The Whale
This is one of two big toss ups between Elvis and The Whale. Elvis seems to be surging at the right time, but my gut is still telling me The Whale. From the first picture we got of Brendan Fraser the narrative was an easy makeup win and while Elvis' status as a best picture nominee and the more likely best actor winner helps, I can't help but still think it'll be The Whale. The Whale is also probably my choice here.
Production Design
Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, Avatar: The Way Of Water, Babylon, Elvis, The Fabelmans
Babylon is winning all the production design awards so that's what I'm predicting, but Elvis could surprise here. Babylon would also be my pick, say what you will about the movie it's production design is elite.
Film Editing
Nominees: The Banshees Of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, Tar, Top Gun: Maverick
There is certainly an argument for Top Gun here, but how can you deny Everything Everywhere. This category historically rewards the MOST editing rather than the best, as evidenced by Bohemian Rhapsody winning even though it's one of the worst cut Oscar movies I've seen. Everything Everywhere not only has a ton of flashy editing, it's also really great. The movie flows well and uses rapid editing in a brilliantly creative way so I have to predict it. Everything Everywhere would also be my choice.
Cinematography
Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, Bardo: False Chronicle Of A Handful Of Truths, Elvis, Empire Of Light, Tar
Elvis has been picking up a lot of steam here, but I just don't see it happening. With the absence of Top Gun I think All Quiet just makes the most sense here, especially considering how many nominations it received. I don't really like this bunch much so my pick would be Tar, which has some of the sneakily best cinematography of 2022.
Visual Effects
Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, Avatar: The Way Of Water, The Batman, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Top Gun: Maverick
If Avatar doesn't win it'll be an absurd upset. I don't LOVE the movie but there's no denying it's effects so that's my pick and prediction.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Austin Butler - Elvis, Colin Farrell - The Banshees Of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser - The Whale, Paul Mescal - Aftersun, Bill Nighy - Living
In a perfect world our lord and saviour Paul Mescal would be walking up on that stage, but alas we don't live in a perfect world. That being said, this is a terrific lineup where any of the 5 I would be okay with. I'm less excited by the idea of Butler taking it (although he is great), but Farrell would make me crazy happy and I'd love to see it go to Fraser. I think Fraser is where I'm throwing my prediction. Butler won at BAFTA and has the benefit of being in a best picture nominee as well as playing a real person, but Fraser won SAG and the narrative around him is just too good to pass up in my opinion.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Cate Blanchett - Tar, Ana de Armas - Blonde, Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie, Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans, Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
Last year we had three acting races that swept basically every awards show. This year is the opposite with supporting actress, lead actor, and now lead actress giving great races. This is perhaps the most interesting category for me based on the two running for the win. Cate Blanchett gives one of the best performances I've ever seen, and in most cases I would want her to win. However, she has two Oscars already while Michelle Yeoh also gives a terrific performance and has had a long career without ever really getting the credit she has deserved. So ultimately I'll be happy either way but based on the narrative I'd be more excited for Yeoh. That being said, my gut is still telling me Blanchett. The love for Everything Everywhere is overwhelming but if the Academy can give Frances McDormand a third Oscar I see no reason why they wouldn't do the same for Blanchett. Both have such strong cases but Blanchett is my prediction still.
Directing
Nominees: The Banshees Of Inisherin - Martin McDonagh, Everything Everywhere All At Once - Daniels, The Fabelmans - Steven Spielberg, Tar - Todd Field, Triangle Of Sadness - Ruben Ostlund
This is another one where there has been a sweep amongst the awards shows, with The Daniels taking home best director nearly everywhere. Their only real misses were at the Golden Globes which don't matter, and the BAFTAs which had a weird hard-on for All Quiet which isn't even nominated here. The award is the Daniels' to lose and I don't think they will, and this would be an awesome best director win.
Best Picture
Nominees: All Quiet On The Western Front, Avatar: The Way Of Water, The Banshees Of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tar, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle Of Sadness, Women Talking
In case you couldn't tell by how many times I've mentioned it, Everything Everywhere all at Once has a full head of steam rolling into the Oscars. It has won the Critics Choice, the top prize at DGA, best picture at PGA, best ensemble at SAG while also setting a new record for wins at the ceremony, and I just don't see it slowing down. People have referenced the older voting body of the Oscars and the preferential best picture ballot as reasons it could lose, but I don't see it at all. Whether you love the movie or not, there is no denying that Everything Everywhere has been the film with by far the most passion behind it from the industry. If we're talking about the general public maybe Top Gun takes that crown but this award isn't given by the public, it's given by a group of a couple thousand people working in film and the film world has embraced this film with passion I haven't seen since Parasite and we all know where that ended up. Frankly I just don't see how anything else can pull it off, I love this best picture lineup but nothing else really makes sense to me so Everything Everywhere all at Once is my pick and prediction.
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