After a long awards season we have finally reached the end. On Sunday night we will see a new best picture winner added to the record books, as well as countless other beloved figures in the film world taking home Oscar gold for their work in 2023. Last year I put out my picks and predictions for every award and had a blast doing so, so here are my thoughts on every category for the 96th Academy Awards...
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer, Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple, America Ferrera - Barbie, Jodie Foster - Nyad, Da'Vine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
This is a bit of a weak category this year but don't let that distract from it holding one of last year's best performances. While Blunt and Brooks are both great, Da'Vine Joy Randolph has swept at essentially every awards show and with good reason, her performance brings so much heart to The Holdovers, making an already great movie layered with emotional depth. She is truly incredible, and she is all but guaranteed a well deserved Oscar.
Costume Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
This is one of two categories that I see being pretty tight between Barbie and Poor Things, the other being production design. I love the costume design in Poor Things, but I think I'd lean Barbie here due to just how many different costumes there are in such a wide range of styles. The costumes are such a huge part in the story and central character and I think that'll help push Barbie to the win.
Sound
Nominees: The Creator, Maestro, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest
This seems to be another two horse race. The Zone of Interest has some incredible sound design, with the sounds of atrocities lingering in the background throughout the film to create a deeply haunting atmosphere. However, Oppenheimer is the movie of the year and it also has some great use of sound whether that be in the iconic testing sequence or the scene with everyone stomping in their makeshift chapel. Either would be a great win, I'd choose Oppenheimer due to how impactful I found those scenes, and I think it'll squeak out a tight win here.
Original Score
Nominees: American Fiction, Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
American Fiction and Indiana Jones being two of the nominees sadly weakens this category a lot. Ludwig Goransson's work on Oppenheimer is truly incredible and I see no chance that he misses the win. If Daniel Pemberton was here for Across the Spider-Verse that would be my pick but based on the nominees I'd definitely go with Oppenheimer.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
This is a category that has taken some deeply interesting turns. Initially it looked at though Barbenheimer could take both screenplay awards until Barbie was shifted into adapted screenplay rather than original. So an already interesting race between Oppenheimer and Poor Things becomes a three horse race with Barbie right? Wrong apparently, as American Fiction has taken some of the biggest awards including Critics Choice and a very unexpected BAFTA win. It feels crazy to not predict it at this point, but one of Barbenheimer would be my pick.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives
My choice here would 100% be Past Lives. Celine Song's script has some of the most emotional and intimately written dialogue I've heard in some time and is a big part of my love for the film. For the Oscar though it seems to be a battle between The Holdovers and Anatomy of a Fall. I would be thrilled with either, but I think Anatomy of a Fall is the favourite. It won the Golden Globe and BAFTA, and with Critics Choice going to Barbie there is nothing in this category that has won at another major ceremony. As much as I love The Holdovers and think it's screenplay is amazing, the complexity and clever dialogue of Anatomy of a Fall would be very deserving.
Live Action Short Film
Nominees: The After, Invincible, Knight of Fortune, Red, White, and Blue, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
In a perfect world the hilarious yet emotionally resonant Knight of Fortune would be a winner, but this feels destined to go to The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar. This is a great short film and finally giving Wes Anderson an Oscar I doubt he'll find with any other project is pretty exciting.
Animated Short Film
Nominees: Letter to a Pig, Ninety-Five Senses, Our Uniform, Pachyderme, War is Over! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
People seem to be predicting Letter to a Pig, others seem to be predicting War is Over! (although a lot of people seem to also hate that one). Letter to a Pig is good but I'm going to go bold and predict the film I would choose which is Ninety-Five Senses, a film that balances fun and devastating emotion while also delivering some great animation.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Sterling K. Brown - American Fiction, Robert De Niro - Killers of the Flower Moon, Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer, Ryan Gosling - Barbie, Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
Similar to Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Robert Downey Jr. has won seemingly everywhere and is pretty clearly on his way to an Oscar win. For my choice I may lean ever so slightly to Ruffalo but I love RDJ in Oppenheimer.
Original Song
Nominees: "The Fire Inside" - Flamin' Hot, "I'm Just Ken" - Barbie, "It Never Went Away" - American Symphony, "Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)" - Killers of the Flower Moon, "What was I Made For?" - Barbie
For both my pick and prediction I'll be pulling from the Barbie well, as nothing else seems to have even the slightest chance. I would love an "I'm Just Ken" win and that would be my pick, just an awesome song/musical number while "What was I Made For?" just doesn't pack that same punch for me. That being said, I suspect Billie Eilish is walking home with an Oscar.
Documentary Feature Film
Nominees: Bobi Wine: The People's President, The Eternal Memory, Four Daughters, To Kill a Tiger, 20 Days in Mariupol
The documentary branch is always weird so I can't say anything here with certainty, but last year we say a very Putin critical documentary win in Navalny, and I could see something similar here with 20 Days in Mariupol taking a firsthand look at a town in Ukraine during Russia's attacks. I think it's the best of the bunch as well so it would be well deserved.
Documentary Short Film
Nominees: The ABCs of Book Banning, The Barber of Little Rock, Island in Between, The Last Repair Shop, Nai Nai & Wai Po
I feel like documentary feature and the short film categories are the hardest to predict so obviously documentary short is the easiest to predict. Kidding. I have no idea. It seems like most are leaning The ABCs of Book Banning which I really hope isn't the case. As important as the subject matter is, it just really isn't a well crafted film and it's among some really great short docs. My choice would be Nai Nai & Wai Po which is just a pure delight and I hope everyone watches, but for a prediction I'm going to shift from the norm and go with what would be my second choice; The Last Repair Shop.
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International Feature Film
Nominees: Io Capitano, Perfect Days, Society of the Snow, The Teacher's Lounge, The Zone of Interest
This might be the biggest layup of all this Oscar season. Had France submitted Anatomy of a Fall we would have a pretty awesome fight on our hands, but alas no. The Zone of Interest has several other nominations and the only other film that has been winning this category wasn't even submitted so it is 100% taking this. I would have picked Society of the Snow though.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona, Robot Dreams, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
If you asked me in June I would've said there was no chance anything had a shot against Across the Spider-Verse, but as award season has gone on The Boy and the Heron has snuck its fair share of wins. I still lean Spider-Verse, which would be my pick as well, but I think this will be close.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: Golda, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Society of the Snow
I feel for Bradley Cooper, as Maestro has become almost a punching bag despite offering some terrific filmmaking and a really strong performance. This feels like it's only chance at a win though, and I think it will, although the less than stellar response to the film could open a door for Poor Things to swoop in which would also be deserving. Maestro may be my pick here but it's close.
Production Design
Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
I want this to be Poor Things so badly. The production design in that movie is astoundingly good, basically creating small towns with intimate detail. I have an inkling feeling that Barbie may come in and snatch it, but I'm going to go with my gut and my hope and say Poor Things.
Film Editing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
This seems like one of the big slam dunk obvious Oppenheimer picks and I'm all for it. The way the editing weaves through different points in time seamlessly and delivers a three hour epic that never loses steam is really incredible. This will be a well deserved win.
Cinematography
Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things
If given my choice I'd honestly probably go with Maestro or El Conde from these nominees, but Oppenheimer is going to win and that is absolutely okay it's an insanely well shot movie so I have no problem with it winning at all.
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Visual Effects
Nominees: The Creator, Godzilla Minus One, Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 3, Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part One, Napoleon
Godzilla Minus One to my knowledge has won zero precursors... but I don't care. It's visual effects are absolutely incredible and at a very reasonable budget, and with how much passion the film has behind it I believe in my gut that it can and should win. The Creator also has great effects but far less passion for the film, and while the effects for Guardians of the Galaxy are good, an MCU movie has never won this award and I highly doubt this is where they would start. Godzilla Minus One would be the coolest win of the night in my opinion let's make it happen Academy.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Bradley Cooper - Maestro, Colman Domingo - Rustin, Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers, Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer, Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
After his surprise critics choice win, it seemed like Paul Giamatti could end up squeaking out an unexpected Oscar win. Sadly for Giamatti, Cillian Murphy has won essentially everywhere since. As much as I love Giamatti (and all the other nominees for that matter) this feels like it just has to be Murphy. He's the leading face of a three hour biopic that is about to win countless other awards. Oppenheimer is the movie of the year and its leading man is going to take a well deserved Oscar.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Annette Bening - Nyad, Lily Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon, Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan - Maestro, Emma Stone - Poor Things
This is one of the most exciting races of the night, and one where either side of the coin would be a great win. On one hand, there's Emma Stone who in my opinion gave the best performance in general last year and who has a chance to win her second Oscar at 35 years old which would be incredible. On the other hand, there's Lily Gladstone who gives an incredible performance and has had buzz around her since we saw the first images of Killers of the Flower Moon and could become the first indigenous actor to win an Oscar which would obviously also be incredible. My pick here would be Emma Stone, but the race between them is crazy. Both won Golden Globes, Emma Stone won Critics Choice and BAFTA, and Lily Gladstone recently won at SAG. Stone taking those two big awards would seem to point her way, but this is very similar to what we saw last year between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh, and at the end of the day it was the SAG winner with a stronger narrative and momentum that ended up winning it when Michelle Yeoh was awarded. With that in mind, I'm going to predict Lily Gladstone, but this really could go either way.
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Directing
Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall - Justine Triet, Killers of the Flower Moon - Martin Scorsese, Oppenheimer - Christopher Nolan, Poor Things - Yorgos Lanthimos, The Zone of Interest - Jonathan Glazer
After a tough category like Best Actress it's refreshing to have a layup here. Christopher Nolan is winning here, there's almost no chance he misses, and I love it. In recent years we've seen some filmmakers like the Daniels, Chloe Zhao, and Jane Campion, all of whom do incredible work but aren't necessarily big names the average person would know. It's been a while since a name as big as Nolan took home best director and I think it's really exciting that we're going to get to see one of the greats of our time recognized for his work.
Best Picture
Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
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