We are just a few days away from the Oscars, finally bringing to a close what has felt like one of the longest award seasons in recent memory. A lot seems set in stone, but there are some crucial categories that are very up in the air. As I do every year now, I'll be breaking down each category and giving my prediction, as well as who I think should win.
Actress in a Supporting Role
Elle Fanning - Sentimental Value, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas - Sentimental Value, Amy Madigan - Weapons, Wunmi Mosaku - Sinners, Teyana Taylor - One Battler After Another
Right off the bat we get one of the categories that are very up in the air. Sadly I don't think either of the Sentimental Value gals have a real shot of winning, although my pick would absolutely be Inga Ibsdotter Lilleas. With a win at the Actor Awards a few weeks ago it seems that Amy Madigan is the front runner, and factoring in her Critics Choice win and the fact that this category almost always follows suit with SAG, Madigan is going to be my prediction. Teyana Taylor still has a real shot after her Golden Globe win and overall enthusiasm for the film, while Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA and could benefit from a huge surge in support for Sinners.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein, Kokuho, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, The Ugly Stepsister
This is about as much of a layup as there is. Frankenstein is going to run away with it, and that would be my pick as well.
Original Score
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners
These are all pretty great scores, and in any other year I think One Battle would take it easily. This is Sinners' to lose though, and that would be my pick as well. Ludwig Goransson is quickly becoming one of the greats.
Live Action Short Film
Butcher's Stain, A Friend of Dorothy, Jane Austen's Period Drama, The Singers, Two People Exchanging Saliva
The shorts are always way too hard to predict. I think Two People Exchanging Saliva is the most impressive of these, but voters may find it hard to vote against the charm of A Friend of Dorothy. That would probably be my choice, and I'll predict it to win. It also has an iconic actor in Miriam Margolyes which I think could help.
Animated Short Film
Butterfly, Forevergreen, The Girl Who Cried Pearls, Retirement Plan, The Three Sisters
Again, the shorts are way too hard to predict. Butterfly is the front runner according to Gold Derby so I'll predict that, but my choice would be Retirement Plan.
Adapted Screenplay
Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams
While it seems that Sinners is surging to win a lot of what was previously predicted for One Battle After Another, One Battle doesn't have to worry about that here. Despite a pretty stacked category, PTA will win and should win the first Oscar in his long and prolific career.
Original Screenplay
Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners
Like adapted screenplay this is a category that is pretty much locked up. I'd probably go Sentimental Value, but Sinners is absolutely going to win and it'll be a more than deserving winner.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Benicio del Toro - One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein, Delroy Lindo - Sinners, Sean Penn - One Battle After Another, Stellan Skarsgard - Sentimental Value
This is less up in the air than supporting actress, but it's a category that I could see giving us a fun surprise. Penn is the frontrunner after winning at the Actor Awards, but I wonder if there's still a shot for Stellan Skarsgard. He won the Golden Globe and gave a terrific speech, while we've barely heard from Penn throughout the season. Penn also has two Oscars already, so I wonder if people may hesitate to award him for a third time. I also wouldn't be too shocked if Delroy Lindo came out of nowhere for a win thanks to the swell of support for Sinners. All the stats are pointing to Penn, but I'm going to throw a fun guess into the wind and go with my personal preference Stellan Skarsgard.
Casting
Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sinners
This is a really tough one to predict as this will be the first year of the category. My gut is telling me this will be Sinners based on the strength of the ensemble and the discovery of Miles Caton, but One Battle has a similar case. The Secret Agent also has a huge ensemble of discoveries, but I do think Sinners takes this one and deserves it.
Costume Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners
Of the craft categories Frankenstein is likely to win this one does feel the most up in the air. The production design and hair and makeup feel like locks, but I do see a world where Hamnet or Sinners could sneak in, especially with the iconic Ruth E. Carter doing the Sinners costumes. I'll still predict Frankenstein, but this is a slightly tighter race.
Original Song
"Dear Me" - Diane Warren: Relentless, "Golden" - Kpop Demon Hunters, "I Lied to You" - Sinners, "Sweet Dreams of Joy" - Viva Verdi!, "Train Dreams" - Train Dreams
"I Lied to You" should absolutely win here, but if we're being honest there's no stopping "Golden". The Kpop Demon Hunters track was one of the biggest hits of the year and it's just too big to bet against. The moment in Sinners is legendary, but the song itself just can't beat "Golden". As long as Diane Warren doesn't win I'll be fine though.
Documentary Feature Film
The Alabama Solution, Come See Me In the Good Light, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor
I can easily see Mr. Nobody Against Putin winning, but The Perfect Neighbor is a very topical documentary and one done in an interesting way. The doc category is always weird so we'll see how this shakes out, but I don't feel like anything has a better shot than The Perfect Neighbor.
Documentary Short Film
All the Empty Rooms, Armed With Only a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud, Children No More: "We Are Gone", The Devil is Busy, Perfectly a Strangeness
All the Empty Rooms seems like a clear front runner, but I think there's a chance that Armed With Only a Camera could win based on its subject matter. The Devil is Busy would be my pick, but I'm going to predict Armed With Only a Camera.
International Feature Film
The Secret Agent, It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, Sirat, The Voice of Hind Rajab
Last year we saw a front runner in Emilia Perez fumble at the goal line to the surprise hit Brazilian drama I'm Still Here. It's easy to predict that again with The Secret Agent, but I do still think Sentimental Value will still take this one. The amount of nominations it has without the widespread hate Emilia Perez wound up getting make it a clearly beloved film, and the quartet of acting nominations plus Joachim Trier in director make it a clear winner in my eyes.
Animated Feature Film
Arco, Elio, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2
It may be the worst of this bunch, but I do think Kpop Demon Hunters is winning this. There's no denying its cultural impact and the animation is pretty impressive. Little Amelie would be my pick, but Kpop Demon Hunters has all the momentum and will be a very fun winner.
Production Design
Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners
Like hair and makeup, this is a Frankenstein win without a doubt. Guillermo del Toro's films are known for their elaborate sets and this might be the ultimate example. Frankenstein is winning this and there's no doubt about it.
Film Editing
F1, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners
This feels like a pretty surefire One Battle win despite being up against Sinners again. It's a nearly three hour long movie with immaculate pacing and an energy that is simply infectious. I honestly don't see any chance for it to lose this one.
Sound
F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirat
Could the music in Sinners help it win here? Unfortunately I doubt it, one of these movies has cars driving loud and fast and that'll lead to a pretty easy F1 win, especially considering it's surprise Best Picture nomination. I don't even know what I'd pick here, I guess I'll go with the fast cars.
Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Jurassic World: Rebirth, The Lost Bus, Sinners
I'd vote Jurassic World because dinosaurs are way more fun, but this is Avatar's to lose. As long as there's an Avatar movie in this category that'll be the winner I think.
Cinematography
Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams
My pick here would probably be Sinners, but this is one category where it seems One Battle has more steam. I can easily see a Train Dreams win, but really it's a question of whether or not you think the Sinners hype helps it here. I'm going to go with One Battle for now but I'm very back and forth.
Actor in a Leading Role
Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme, Leonardo Dicaprio - One Battle After Another, Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon, Michael B. Jordan - Sinners, Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent
It's kind of insane how much this race has shifted. For most of the award season it seemed like Chalamet was going to run away with this one, then Michael B. Jordan shocked the world at the Actor Awards and now it feels like he may just take this one. Chalamet's recent run of bad publicity probably doesn't help him, but I really think it's a mix of fatigue for him and the surge of Sinners support that put Michael B. Jordan as the likelier win. Momentum is huge and Jordan has that right now, and with how big his moment was at the Actor Awards and the possibility of a Sinners Best Picture win, I have to predict him. My choice would be Ethan Hawke, but this would be a very exciting win for Jordan. Also a Chalamet loss would really cement him as the next Dicaprio.
Actress in a Leading Role
Jessie Buckley - Hamnet, Rose Byrne - If I Had Legs I'd Kick You, Kate Hudson - Song Sung Blue, Renate Reinsve - Sentimental Value, Emma Stone - Bugonia
Jessie Buckley is going to win, and she's the absolute right choice. She's the only actor who has swept all season and barring one of the craziest upsets we've ever seen, she will continue that into Oscar night. I love Buckley, so this is going to be a great win.
Directing
Hamnet - Chloe Zhao, Marty Supreme - Josh Safdie, One Battle After Another - Paul Thomas Anderson, Sentimental Value - Joachim Trier, Sinners - Ryan Coogler
I do think there is a world where Coogler sweeps in to win, but I think that chance is pretty low. Paul Thomas Anderson is about as overdue for a win as any filmmaker out there, and this feels like his time to shine. He'd be my pick without a doubt, and I think this is going to finally be his year.
Best Picture
Bugonia, F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams
This seemed like One Battle After Another all the way, but then nominations came out and Sinners set a new record for total nominations. That doesn't necessarily mean a win though, La La Land lost Best Picture in 2017 despite tying the record at the time, and movies with big nomination tallies fall short all the time. Even after the nominations came out I was predicting One Battle, but there has been such a massive surge of support for Sinners recently, especially at the Actor Awards where it won Best Ensemble along with Michael B. Jordan's surprise win. There are so many categories where the movie could sneak wins, but One Battle also has the chance for a ton of wins. You can argue that Sinners as a horror film may be limited by genre bias, but few horror movies have the universal acclaim that we've seen from Sinners. It truly feels like either could win, and that makes this one of the most exciting races in a long time. My gut is telling me PTA for director but Sinners for Best Picture, but really either movie would be a more than worthy Best Picture winner. My choice would be Sentimental Value, but I love One Battle and Sinners so I'm really just excited to see which film ends up on top.
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