This awards season has been frankly insane. Controversy arose just at the sheer amount of love the widely panned Emilia Perez received, only for AI, a problematic star, and a somewhat bigoted director to send it spiraling into an endless wave of online hate. The Brutalist seemed like a big front-runner before it too received backlash for use of AI, and Anora caught a lot of unnecessary flack for the choice to not use intimacy coordinators on set. Those are just the highlights of a messy past couple of months, but we have reached the end of the tunnel with the 97th Academy Awards finally here. There are some slam dunk picks this year as with any other year, but there are also quite a big races that are still somewhat up in the air. So without further adieu, here are my picks and predictions for this year's Oscar winners...
Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Monica Barbaro - A Complete Unknown, Ariana Grande - Wicked, Felicity Jones - The Brutalist, Isabella Rossellini - Conclave, Zoe Saldana - Emilia Perez
Unfortunately I'm not wowed by this group of nominees. There are some great performances here in Jones and Grande, and the rest are all good, but there's no real standout for me. Based on how things have played out thus far it seems as though Zoe Saldana is a lock especially after her SAG win in the midst of the film's backlash, but if the Emilia Perez controversy has tanked her chances look out for Ariana Grande to sneak a win. Grande would probably be my choice, she might just be the best part of Wicked.
Costume Design
Nominees: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, Wicked
I wouldn't be too surprised if we saw Conclave take this one, but I really don't see a world in which Wicked doesn't come out on top. This category in recent years has been going to costumes that are more out there like Poor Things, Cruella, and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, a trend that falls much more in line with Wicked than the four other films here, all of which have costumes that feel somewhat familiar. Wicked would probably be my choice as well.
Sound
Nominees: A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
A lot of people seem to be predicting one of the music-based movies to win this one, and Wicked very well may take it. Based on precursors though, it seems Dune: Part Two is the likelier winner and I would consider it more deserved. Much like with costumes, this also seems to be the pick that falls most in line with the trend in winners of the past few years. Oh and Dune would without question be my choice.
Original Score
Nominees: The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Perez, Wicked, The Wild Robot
Like last year, this is a category that could be so much stronger. The score is not the part of Emilia Perez or Wicked that anyone talked about so replace those two with Challengers which won at the Golden Globes and Dune: Part Two which was deemed ineligible and we have a much more interesting race. As it stands, I do think Conclave has a great score, but Daniel Blumberg's work on The Brutalist is simply incredible and he more than deserves the win here.
Adapted Screenplay
Nominees: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys, Sing Sing
I wish Sing Sing and Nickel Boys were making stronger waves in this category, but despite magnificent screenplays both films have struggled to make a big enough impact on the awards races this year. Sing Sing would be my personal pick, but this seems fated to be one of the awards Conclave takes home, and it boasts a fantastic screenplay so I have no problem with it winning.
Original Screenplay
Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance
This is a category that has been much more interesting than I thought it would be. A Real Pain has felt like it could be a sneaky winner like American Fiction last year, The Substance shocked many by picking up the Critic's Choice win, and The Brutalist is a potential winner anywhere it's nominated. It seems though that this is going to be the category that gives Sean Baker his first Oscar win, and that would be my choice as well with Anora being my favourite of the nominees.
Live Action Short Film
Nominees: A Lien, Anuja, I'm Not a Robot, The Last Ranger, The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Animated Short Film
Nominees: Beautiful Men, In the Shadow of the Cypress, Magic Candies, Wander to Wonder, Yuck!
Now in this category I actually disagree with the GoldDerby odds. I should say now, take all of my short film predictions with a grain of salt, as they are always incredibly hard to predict unless there's a clear favourite. My pick of the bunch would be Yuck!, a creative and pretty adorable watch that while not visually ambitious was without a doubt the film I connected with most. That's also going to be my prediction. It currently sits behind Beautiful Men and Wander to Wonder on GoldDerby, but neither of those really wowed me so I'm going with my heart on this one.
Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees: Yura Borisov - Anora, Kieran Culkin - A Real Pain, Edward Norton - A Complete Unknown, Guy Pearce - The Brutalist, Jeremy Strong - The Apprentice
It seems the supporting actor categories are just destined to be sweeps from now on. Kieran Culkin has won everywhere, whether it be the Golden Globes, SAG, or Critics Choice. Add in his hilarious charm that makes it easy to vote for him, as well as his pedigree from Succession, and he becomes a very easy choice for the win. I love Yura Borisov & Jeremy Strong's performances, but I'd have to agree with Culkin here he is magnificent in A Real Pain.
Original Song
Nominees: "El Mal" - Emilia Perez, "The Journey" - The Six Triple Eight, "Like a Bird" - Sing Sing, "Mi Camino" - Emilia Perez, "Never Too Late" - Elton John: Never Too Late
This might be the least I've ever cared about this category. Not only is Sing Sing the only great movie here, it probably has the only song of these nominees that I would give any love to. Obviously that's my pick, but I don't see a world in which Emilia Perez loses with two nominations. With that in mind I'm going to begrudgingly pick "El Mal".
Documentary Feature Film
Nominees: Black Box Diaries, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Soundtrack to a Coup D'Etat, Sugarcane
This category is one that has consistently fallen in line with noteworthy current events. Last year it was 20 Days in Mariupol which was set amidst the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the year before it was Navalny which followed the assassination attempt on Putin's opposition Alexei Navalny. These nominees are all topical, but none more than No Other Land which follows Palestinian life under Israeli occupation. It's a crushing documentary, and while I probably would have chosen Soundtrack to a Coup D'Etat, No Other Land is easily the most acclaimed of this bunch and I believe has an easy path to a win.
Documentary Short Film
Nominees: Death by Numbers, I Am Ready Warden, Incident, Instruments of a Beating Heart, The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Again, the shorts are always tough to figure out. My choice would either be Death by Numbers or Incident. It seems many are predicting I Am Ready Warden so that would likely be the safe choice, but it also has its share of skeptics so I'm going to predict Incident, a heartbreaking and frustrating film that makes use of security and body cameras to tell its story.
International Feature Film
Nominees: Brazil - I'm Still Here, Denmark - The Girl with the Needle, Frace - Emilia Perez, Germany - The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Latvia - Flow
With all of the controversy surrounding Emilia Perez the tides have been seemingly turning to I'm Still Here. I would love to see it happen, but ultimately I feel like an I'm Still Here win is more wishful thinking. The controversies will no doubt hinder it, but Emilia Perez was a best picture front runner just a few months ago and has a near record setting amount of nominations, so while I hope it loses I do still think it will take this. As for my choice, I like all the other nominees but I would have to go with The Girl with the Needle.
Animated Feature Film
Nominees: Flow, Inside Out 2, Memoir of a Snail, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot
This is a category I may be basing too much off of what happened last year. Across the Spider-Verse was a heavy favourite and won Critics Choice but lost to the Golden Globe winner The Boy and the Heron. I'm going to predict more of the same here, and my prediction is that the Golden Globe winner Flow (also nominated for international feature) will take down the favourite The Wild Robot (also nominated in sound and score) despite its recent Critics Choice win. The odds probably lean more to The Wild Robot but I'm feeling bold here. My choice on the other hand would undoubtedly be Memoir of a Snail.
Makeup and Hairstyling
Nominees: A Different Man, Emilia Perez, Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked
Shoutout to all the nominees, especially A Different Man which may have been my pick, but this is The Substance all the way. I feel like every year there are weird body horror movies that feel like they could win if they got nominated, and here we have The Substance which was not only nominated here but also in several of the big awards. This one is a slam dunk, and a well deserved one.
Production Design
Nominees: The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked
I think the production design in The Brutalist is incredibly underrated and it would be my choice, but this feels destined to be Wicked. Honestly, this is a very strong category so any of these choices would be a great winner, but the bright colours and intricate set designs in Wicked feel like they'll take the prize.
Film Editing
Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Perez, Wicked
This is really a coin toss between Anora and Conclave. The two films are also I think the top choices for best picture, and this could go a long way towards showing us who the big winner of the night will end up being. Anora would be my choice, but I'm actually going to predict Conclave largely due to how clean the craft is overall.
Cinematography
Nominees: The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, Maria, Nosferatu
This could be such a strong category if not for one big elephant in the room. Regardless, there's some great work on display here. For my choice it's a coin toss between The Brutalist and Dune: Part Two, and I do think The Brutalist will end up taking it. It's an epic story shot brilliantly, making it feel like a good bet for a win.
Visual Effects
Nominees: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Wicked
These are another pretty great set of nominees, but this is also another slam dunk category. Dune: Part Two is going to win this without a shred of doubt I think, and it would easily be my choice so I think it's more than deserving. Keep an eye on the monkey movies if anything is going to sneak in.
Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees: Adrien Brody - The Brutalist, Timothee Chalamet - A Complete Unknown, Colman Domingo - Sing Sing, Ralph Fiennes - Conclave, Sebastian Stan - The Apprentice
This has quickly become one of the more exciting races of the night. Honestly the next four categories including best picture are all a bit up in the air which is very exciting. Adrien Brody has won damn near everywhere, including the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. Sebastian Stan has one win at the Golden Globes, but it was for a different movie so he doesn't seem to have a chance, nor do Domingo or Fiennes. Where the real upset potential comes in is with Timothee Chalamet's SAG win last weekend. Last year SAG seemed to point towards Lily Gladstone winning for Killers of the Flower Moon only for Emma Stone to take home the Oscar, whereas the year before Jamie Lee-Curtis' supporting actress win paved the way for her to take home the Oscar. The odds are very much in favour of Adrien Brody, but the narrative of Timothee Chalamet becoming the youngest best actor winner, dethroning Brody himself, is too much to pass up for me. I think Brody gives the better performance but I think Chalamet would be a more exciting winner, so that's my prediction. As for my choice, it's Colman Domingo without a doubt, I think he'd be in winning conversation if A24 handled the Sing Sing campaign better.
Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees: Cynthia Erivo - Wicked, Karla Sophia Gascon - Emilia Perez, Mikey Madison - Anora, Demi Moore - The Substance, Fernanda Torres - I'm Still Here
This is another exciting race with two, or potentially three who have a chance to take it home. Demi Moore has won all over the place, giving emotional and powerful speeches along the way. Mikey Madison took home BAFTA, and could be part of the package for an Anora best picture win, and it seems unwise to doubt the potential for a Fernanda Torres surprise after she came out of nowhere to win at the Golden Globes, only to have I'm Still Here also sneak into the best picture lineup. I do think this is Demi's to lose though, the narrative is on her side and it truly is a remarkable and courageous performance. As a horror fan, I also can't get enough of the idea of a horror movie finally taking best actress after so many great performances in recent years were completely overlooked.
Directing
Nominees: Anora - Sean Baker, The Brutalist - Brady Corbet, A Complete Unknown - James Mangold, Emilia Perez - Jacques Audiard, The Substance - Coralie Fargeat
This is such a tough one. Brady Corbet started out the season strong, but Sean Baker won the DGA recently and Corbet seems to be losing steam. It's counterintuitive based on who I have winning best picture, but I'm going to predict Corbet. Anora is magnificent, but when I think of a best director win I think of cinematic achievements, and The Brutalist strikes me more as something big and bold. I honestly don't know who my choice would be, I might go with Coralie Fargeat for how well she handled such a crazy idea.
Best Picture
Nominees: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, Wicked
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