With the big day upon us I'm going to go through each category and give my picks as to who will win and why, as well as mentioning some snubs I would have liked to see. Some of these picks I'm almost certain about while others I change my mind on each day, so maybe don't take my word on some of these. Also I'm ordering these based on when they were announced in last year's ceremony.
Best Supporting Actor
Everything I've seen so far is pointing towards Mahershala Ali taking home the prize once again. He won for Moonlight and has a more prominent role here, and his path leading up to the Oscars has been filled with wins. If anyone were to upset I'd expect it to be Richard E Grant. Of these nominees his performance was my favourite, bringing a charm to the screen that was unmatched. But while I'd love to see Grant take it, it's Ali's to lose. I wouldn't mind seeing Adam Driver win but that seems very unlikely, and both Sam Elliot and Sam Rockwell just didn't bring enough to be on top with Ali and Grant. As for snubs, I really think Daniel Kaluuya should be here for Widows, taking a bland role and making it terrifying. I also would have loved to see Rafael Casal from Blindspotting or Nicholas Hoult's underrated performance in The Favourite.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Vice is winning this. Mary Queen of Scots didn't garner much praise and Border is fairly unknown, and the work put in by Vice's hair and makeup team is some of the only work I actually liked in the film. This feels like a slam dunk category. If The Favourite were nominated it may be a different story but this is Vice all the way.
Best Costume Design
With both costume design and production design there seems to be a two horse race between Black Panther and The Favourite. I think they will both take one of the two and this is where I'm guessing Black Panther. I think the costumes in Black Panther are a bit more memorable and vibrant and that will be enough to secure the win. Mary Poppins Returns may have an outside shot, but I'd say that's unlikely, and both Mary Queen of Scots and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs have very little chance. If I had to name a snub I think the costumes in American Animals deserve some love.
Best Documentary Feature
This is a really weird category. Pretty much everyone assumed that Won't you be my Neighbor? would win this award, but it didn't even get nominated. With that in mind I think RBG has a decent shot, but the safe bet would be Free Solo, a gripping and moving film that has generated a lot of buzz. I haven't seen the other three films but Free Solo seems like the winner here. My snub here other than Won't you be my Neighbor? is Three Identical Strangers, my personal favourite doc from 2018.
Best Sound Editing
First Man has been snubbed from a lot, but I think this is where it will get recognition. A Quiet Place could certainly take it home, and all of the other films have a chance, but First Man's sound design is magnificent. Mission Impossible: Fallout and Thoroughbreds are two films I'd like to have seen here.
Best Sound Mixing
While I think First Man has editing, I think Bohemian Rhapsody will take mixing. I don't want it to win, but I have a feeling the way the music was mixed into the film will give it a nudge. A Star is Born likely has a good shot for the same reasons, while Black Panther and Roma are unlikely. My snubs here are Mission Impossible: Fallout and Blindspotting.
Best Production Design
As I said before this is a two horse race between The Favourite and Black Panther. The Academy tends to love period pieces here and The Favourite is one that boasts incredible set design, so I see it winning. I personally think Roma should win among these nominees, but I think films such as Bad Times at the El Royale and Paddington 2 should not only be here but should win the award.
Best Foreign Language Film
I'm going to hesitantly say Roma here. It is no doubt the best of the bunch, but my worry is that with its best picture buzz, some voters may want to share the love to another film. If that is the case then I'd say Cold War will win, especially considering its director and cinematography nominations. I'm still saying Roma for the win here, although I wouldn't mind either Shoplifters or Capernaum taking it either.
Best Supporting Actress
While their performances are all good, Emma Stone, Marina de Tavira, and Amy Adams are all pretty much out of the running here. This is a two horse race between Regina King and Rachel Weisz. King has been heralded as the frontrunner for months now, and I expect her to win. Weisz is fantastic however, so I wouldn't be too shocked if she managed to sneak out a win here. I think Emily Blunt and Elizabeth Debicki would have to be my picks for snubs here, as they were both excellent.
Best Animated Short Film
My personal favourite of these was Animal Behaviour, but I don't think it has a good shot. The safe bet here would be Bao thanks to Pixar's prominence and the general love of the film. Weekends however is a really unique and beautiful film that I think may manage to sneak ahead.
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs are both really good, but if anything other than Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse wins there will be outrage. This is a slam dunk.
Best Visual Effects
Not many of these nominees stand out as having incredible visual effects. First Man's are quite great, but are clean to a point where it's hard to tell that many effects are used. I think Avengers: Infinity War has the best shot here, as it is both a technical achievement and a landmark film. Mary Poppins Returns and Paddington 2 should both be nominated here.
Best Film Editing
I unfortunately think this category is between Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice, two films that I don't think had good editing at all. Despite my opinions here people seem to be gravitating towards to showy editing both films have, and between the two I see Bohemian Rhapsody being liked by more. If either BlackKKlansman, The Favourite, or Green Book manage a win I'll be happy. There's an endless list of snubs here thanks to the two mediocre front runners, but the top two are probably Roma and First Man, as well as the highly underrated Searching which boasts magnificent editing.
Best Documentary Short
Black Sheep is the only of these films to really move me so that's what I'm hoping wins. Many have suggested that Period: End of Sentence could also win, and its important subject matter and Netflix release could lend it a big hand. However I found the film itself to be pretty mediocre and juvenile in the way it chooses bad voice overs rather than subtitles when people speak in other languages. Black Sheep should definitely win here.
Best Live Action Short
This is a tough category. Both Skin and Detainment are very controversial so I don't think either of those have a shot. I loved Madre so I'd love to see it win, and I think Fauve is very good as well, but it seems like people are gravitating more towards Marguerite, as it is the only one of these films that is a pleasing watch.
Best Adapted Screenplay
This seems like the perfect place to give Spike Lee his first Oscar. This category features great screenplays like If Beale Street Could Talk, Can you ever Forgive me?, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and A Star is Born. However, accompanied by his directing nomination I think Spike takes the win here for BlackKKlansman. I would have also liked to see First Man nominated here.
Best Original Screenplay
I'm going with The Favourite here. I don't think Vice or First Reformed have good chances, and Roma relies more on strong technical elements and acting rather than its screenplay. Green Book has a very good chance, but the way the writers manage to capture Yorgos Lanthimos' comedic/tragic tone is incredible, and I think the Academy will look upon that favourably. I really would have loved to see Blindspotting's incredible script here, but a win for The Favourite would make me happy.
Best Cinematography
This has to be Roma. Cuaron's stunning black and white cinematography is some of the best I have ever seen, with even a simple shot of water splashing on the floor managing to be beautiful. Cold War also gives some beautiful black and white cinematography and is likely the runner up. I haven't seen Never Look Away, but the trailers have shown me a stunning film that I wouldn't mind winning, and I also wouldn't mind seeing the absurd camerawork from The Favourite winning, but this feels like a sure thing for Cuaron.
Best Original Score
The snubbing of Justin Hurwitz's score for First Man makes this a simple category to predict. While all of these scores are good, only one has left a mark in my opinion, and that is Nicholas Brittel's poetic music from If Beale Street Could Talk. This was my favourite score of the year, as it is absolutely beautiful, and I see nothing that can beat it. Obviously First Man is a big snub, but I'd also like to have seen Annihilation get some love here.
Best Original Song
I'm of the deeeeep endddd, watch as I diiiiive in, I'll never meeeet the groOUuUnd. Crash through the suuuuurfaaaace, where they can't hurt us, we're far from the shallllow noooowwwww.
Best Directing
Another award that is Cuaron's to lose. As I said before, I think Spike will win a writing award so I don't see him getting this. Adam McKay's work in Vice is nothing special and Pawel Pawlikowski came out of nowhere for his nomination, so I don't see either of them taking it. I wouldn't mind seeing Yorgos Lanthimos win, but Cuaron is my guy and I'm sticking by him for this award. Also I think it's worth noting that if Cuaron wins, 5 of the past 6 Oscar wins for best director will be from a Mexican filmmaker (Cuaron in 2013, Innaritu in 2014 and 2015, and del Toro in 2017).
Best Actor
Rami Malek seems like the front runner here. I don't find his performance as Freddy Mercury to be anything spectacular, but apparently everyone else does. Willem Dafoe should win by a landslide for At Eternity's Gate, but he seems like the biggest long shot. Other than Malek I'd say the best chance is with Christian Bale, a performance I'd much rather see win. Daveed Diggs is brilliant in Blindspotting and should be here, as well as Ryan Gosling for First Man.
Best Actress
This is tough as hell. Glenn Close, Lady Gaga, and Olivia Colman all have a strong chance of winning, with Melissa McCarthy and Yalitza Aparicio also holding an outside shot. I'm putting my money here on Close. Not only is she incredible in The Wife, but she has never won an Oscar despite having an incredible career. This seems like her year. The fact that Toni Collette was snubbed here is absolute blasphemy.
Best Picture
This could really go a number of different ways. If Vice or Bohemian Rhapsody win I'll be pissed as I don't think either are good. Black Panther is a fine nomination but I really don't think it should be a best picture winner, same goes for A Star is Born. I wouldn't be upset seeing BlackKKlansman or The Favourite winning, and I think both have a shot. I think Roma can and should win. It is the year's best film and having a foreign best picture winner for the first time in history would be incredible. I also think Green Book has a very good chance of winning, but I'm putting my faith in Cuaron.
So there are my picks for tonight's ceremony. Here's hoping to a great show with some memorable moments.
Best Supporting Actor
Everything I've seen so far is pointing towards Mahershala Ali taking home the prize once again. He won for Moonlight and has a more prominent role here, and his path leading up to the Oscars has been filled with wins. If anyone were to upset I'd expect it to be Richard E Grant. Of these nominees his performance was my favourite, bringing a charm to the screen that was unmatched. But while I'd love to see Grant take it, it's Ali's to lose. I wouldn't mind seeing Adam Driver win but that seems very unlikely, and both Sam Elliot and Sam Rockwell just didn't bring enough to be on top with Ali and Grant. As for snubs, I really think Daniel Kaluuya should be here for Widows, taking a bland role and making it terrifying. I also would have loved to see Rafael Casal from Blindspotting or Nicholas Hoult's underrated performance in The Favourite.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Vice is winning this. Mary Queen of Scots didn't garner much praise and Border is fairly unknown, and the work put in by Vice's hair and makeup team is some of the only work I actually liked in the film. This feels like a slam dunk category. If The Favourite were nominated it may be a different story but this is Vice all the way.
Best Costume Design
With both costume design and production design there seems to be a two horse race between Black Panther and The Favourite. I think they will both take one of the two and this is where I'm guessing Black Panther. I think the costumes in Black Panther are a bit more memorable and vibrant and that will be enough to secure the win. Mary Poppins Returns may have an outside shot, but I'd say that's unlikely, and both Mary Queen of Scots and The Ballad of Buster Scruggs have very little chance. If I had to name a snub I think the costumes in American Animals deserve some love.
Best Documentary Feature
This is a really weird category. Pretty much everyone assumed that Won't you be my Neighbor? would win this award, but it didn't even get nominated. With that in mind I think RBG has a decent shot, but the safe bet would be Free Solo, a gripping and moving film that has generated a lot of buzz. I haven't seen the other three films but Free Solo seems like the winner here. My snub here other than Won't you be my Neighbor? is Three Identical Strangers, my personal favourite doc from 2018.
Best Sound Editing
First Man has been snubbed from a lot, but I think this is where it will get recognition. A Quiet Place could certainly take it home, and all of the other films have a chance, but First Man's sound design is magnificent. Mission Impossible: Fallout and Thoroughbreds are two films I'd like to have seen here.
Best Sound Mixing
While I think First Man has editing, I think Bohemian Rhapsody will take mixing. I don't want it to win, but I have a feeling the way the music was mixed into the film will give it a nudge. A Star is Born likely has a good shot for the same reasons, while Black Panther and Roma are unlikely. My snubs here are Mission Impossible: Fallout and Blindspotting.
Best Production Design
As I said before this is a two horse race between The Favourite and Black Panther. The Academy tends to love period pieces here and The Favourite is one that boasts incredible set design, so I see it winning. I personally think Roma should win among these nominees, but I think films such as Bad Times at the El Royale and Paddington 2 should not only be here but should win the award.
Best Foreign Language Film
I'm going to hesitantly say Roma here. It is no doubt the best of the bunch, but my worry is that with its best picture buzz, some voters may want to share the love to another film. If that is the case then I'd say Cold War will win, especially considering its director and cinematography nominations. I'm still saying Roma for the win here, although I wouldn't mind either Shoplifters or Capernaum taking it either.
Best Supporting Actress
While their performances are all good, Emma Stone, Marina de Tavira, and Amy Adams are all pretty much out of the running here. This is a two horse race between Regina King and Rachel Weisz. King has been heralded as the frontrunner for months now, and I expect her to win. Weisz is fantastic however, so I wouldn't be too shocked if she managed to sneak out a win here. I think Emily Blunt and Elizabeth Debicki would have to be my picks for snubs here, as they were both excellent.
Best Animated Short Film
My personal favourite of these was Animal Behaviour, but I don't think it has a good shot. The safe bet here would be Bao thanks to Pixar's prominence and the general love of the film. Weekends however is a really unique and beautiful film that I think may manage to sneak ahead.
Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs are both really good, but if anything other than Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse wins there will be outrage. This is a slam dunk.
Best Visual Effects
Not many of these nominees stand out as having incredible visual effects. First Man's are quite great, but are clean to a point where it's hard to tell that many effects are used. I think Avengers: Infinity War has the best shot here, as it is both a technical achievement and a landmark film. Mary Poppins Returns and Paddington 2 should both be nominated here.
Best Film Editing
I unfortunately think this category is between Bohemian Rhapsody and Vice, two films that I don't think had good editing at all. Despite my opinions here people seem to be gravitating towards to showy editing both films have, and between the two I see Bohemian Rhapsody being liked by more. If either BlackKKlansman, The Favourite, or Green Book manage a win I'll be happy. There's an endless list of snubs here thanks to the two mediocre front runners, but the top two are probably Roma and First Man, as well as the highly underrated Searching which boasts magnificent editing.
Best Documentary Short
Black Sheep is the only of these films to really move me so that's what I'm hoping wins. Many have suggested that Period: End of Sentence could also win, and its important subject matter and Netflix release could lend it a big hand. However I found the film itself to be pretty mediocre and juvenile in the way it chooses bad voice overs rather than subtitles when people speak in other languages. Black Sheep should definitely win here.
Best Live Action Short
This is a tough category. Both Skin and Detainment are very controversial so I don't think either of those have a shot. I loved Madre so I'd love to see it win, and I think Fauve is very good as well, but it seems like people are gravitating more towards Marguerite, as it is the only one of these films that is a pleasing watch.
Best Adapted Screenplay
This seems like the perfect place to give Spike Lee his first Oscar. This category features great screenplays like If Beale Street Could Talk, Can you ever Forgive me?, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and A Star is Born. However, accompanied by his directing nomination I think Spike takes the win here for BlackKKlansman. I would have also liked to see First Man nominated here.
Best Original Screenplay
I'm going with The Favourite here. I don't think Vice or First Reformed have good chances, and Roma relies more on strong technical elements and acting rather than its screenplay. Green Book has a very good chance, but the way the writers manage to capture Yorgos Lanthimos' comedic/tragic tone is incredible, and I think the Academy will look upon that favourably. I really would have loved to see Blindspotting's incredible script here, but a win for The Favourite would make me happy.
Best Cinematography
This has to be Roma. Cuaron's stunning black and white cinematography is some of the best I have ever seen, with even a simple shot of water splashing on the floor managing to be beautiful. Cold War also gives some beautiful black and white cinematography and is likely the runner up. I haven't seen Never Look Away, but the trailers have shown me a stunning film that I wouldn't mind winning, and I also wouldn't mind seeing the absurd camerawork from The Favourite winning, but this feels like a sure thing for Cuaron.
Best Original Score
The snubbing of Justin Hurwitz's score for First Man makes this a simple category to predict. While all of these scores are good, only one has left a mark in my opinion, and that is Nicholas Brittel's poetic music from If Beale Street Could Talk. This was my favourite score of the year, as it is absolutely beautiful, and I see nothing that can beat it. Obviously First Man is a big snub, but I'd also like to have seen Annihilation get some love here.
Best Original Song
I'm of the deeeeep endddd, watch as I diiiiive in, I'll never meeeet the groOUuUnd. Crash through the suuuuurfaaaace, where they can't hurt us, we're far from the shallllow noooowwwww.
Best Directing
Another award that is Cuaron's to lose. As I said before, I think Spike will win a writing award so I don't see him getting this. Adam McKay's work in Vice is nothing special and Pawel Pawlikowski came out of nowhere for his nomination, so I don't see either of them taking it. I wouldn't mind seeing Yorgos Lanthimos win, but Cuaron is my guy and I'm sticking by him for this award. Also I think it's worth noting that if Cuaron wins, 5 of the past 6 Oscar wins for best director will be from a Mexican filmmaker (Cuaron in 2013, Innaritu in 2014 and 2015, and del Toro in 2017).
Best Actor
Rami Malek seems like the front runner here. I don't find his performance as Freddy Mercury to be anything spectacular, but apparently everyone else does. Willem Dafoe should win by a landslide for At Eternity's Gate, but he seems like the biggest long shot. Other than Malek I'd say the best chance is with Christian Bale, a performance I'd much rather see win. Daveed Diggs is brilliant in Blindspotting and should be here, as well as Ryan Gosling for First Man.
Best Actress
This is tough as hell. Glenn Close, Lady Gaga, and Olivia Colman all have a strong chance of winning, with Melissa McCarthy and Yalitza Aparicio also holding an outside shot. I'm putting my money here on Close. Not only is she incredible in The Wife, but she has never won an Oscar despite having an incredible career. This seems like her year. The fact that Toni Collette was snubbed here is absolute blasphemy.
Best Picture
This could really go a number of different ways. If Vice or Bohemian Rhapsody win I'll be pissed as I don't think either are good. Black Panther is a fine nomination but I really don't think it should be a best picture winner, same goes for A Star is Born. I wouldn't be upset seeing BlackKKlansman or The Favourite winning, and I think both have a shot. I think Roma can and should win. It is the year's best film and having a foreign best picture winner for the first time in history would be incredible. I also think Green Book has a very good chance of winning, but I'm putting my faith in Cuaron.
So there are my picks for tonight's ceremony. Here's hoping to a great show with some memorable moments.
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